Statistics don’t lie, but they can tell different stories.The good news is that the Q3 2008 online advertising revenues were the second highest ever recorded. They were just under $5.0B. And they were 11% higher than Q3 2007.
The bad news is that each quarter of 2008 hasn’t been able to match that of Q4 2007. So, considering the current state of the economy, we’re likely to have negative growth in online ad revenues as compared to Q4 2007. That’s the first time since 2002. What concerns me is that the totals in real dollars began decreasing in Q1 of this year, and continued through Q2. overall ad spend is down this year. The holiday season may keep the growth rate relatively stable and show an increase in dollar spend, but 2009 – which is just around the corner – is a different story all together.
Let’s take a look at the IAB graph where I’m getting these numbers:
As you can see, there’s quite a dip in 2008. And that was before this financial crisis set in. I’m predicting we’ll see a post-holiday dip and a then continued flat line for most of the year. That is, unless companies try to unload product to get lighten their inventories. We’ll see this with automotive,
Online may not get hit as hard as other mediums, but it won’t escape unscathed.
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