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No Comments » Posted on November 5th, 2007 by Chris Abraham
If you’ve heard of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book The Black Swan then you’ve heard the story. Before Australia was discovered it was thought that all swans were white and then a black swan was not only spotted in Australia but revealed to be the norm in that portion of the globe. This is of course the simplified version of the premise of Taleb’s book. You see “black swan events” have three main attributes they are “unpredictability, consequences, and retrospective explainability” (Taleb 164). Of course the consequences for a true black swan event need to be much greater than those involved with the discovery of a different hue of swan. Black swan events as exemplified in the book can range from the invention of the Internet, the stock market crash of 1987 (which actually catapulted Taleb to his current status), to September 11th. These events came out of nowhere and had a huge impact on society and after the fact their occurrence was explained in a multitude of ways.
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