ZenithOptimedia is predicting that the percentage share of online advertising to advertising on a whole will increase from 7.5% in 2007 to 9.5% in 2009. I’m betting it’s going to be higher. And in part for the similar reasons they do.
Online video is improving and it’s becoming more and more common as a marketing communications vehicle. Broadband expansion is slowing down, but expansion, while important, isn’t the only factor. It’s also how we use and will use video that will cause a continued increase. Broadcast and cable will increase their understanding as to how to make online video more profitable with hopefully, little sacrifice in popularity.
Zenith also says that local search will fuel this increase. Once again, I agree. But I’d expand this. As more and more mid-size and larger companies realize the important of search – and search optimization – they’ll invest more in better sites, further increasing the importance of search. And, yes, those local companies will realize that their customer base is going online for local info. They can’t rely on tradtional methods they once did.
But I’d also add that the growth of social network sites such as MySpace, Facebook, and YouTube will fuel even greater online ad share growth. Right now, they’re in the process of figuring it all out. Once they do, more dollars will be transfered online.
To me, the increase will come from the greater use of improving online applications. My guess is that it will push it up closer to 12%.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
| Newspapers | 29.7 | 29.0 | 27.8 | 26.9 | 26.2 |
| Magazines | 13.2 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 12.1 |
| Television | 37.8 | 37.9 | 37.9 | 38.2 | 38.1 |
| Radio | 8.6 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.8 |
| Cinema | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Outdoor | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Internet | 4.8 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 9.5 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia
